CollegeFootballWinning.com

Real Home Field Advantage in College Football: The Top 3

So much is made out of the home field advantage in college football. For sports bettors, any advantage should be realized, analyzed, and applied. Since college football bettors care about the outcome of their wagers, the only home field advantage worth discussing is the one against-the-spread (ATS). ATS home field advantage could reveal some general conclusions about public perception and, by extension, oddsmakers’ tendencies when establishing betting lines for college football matchups. So, for our money, where is our greatest home field advantage?

THE TOP-3, HOME FIELD, AGAINST-THE-SPREAD COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS, SINCE 2003 (by percentage):

#3 THE OREGON DUCKS

With 33 wins and 19 losses, these mighty Ducks have won at a rate of 63.46% against-the-spread up in Eugene since 2003. If you bet $110 on each home game (to win $100), you would be up $1,210.

BUT WHAT HAVE THEY WON FOR ME LATELY?

While running Chip Kelly’s offense (dating back to 2007, when he arrived as offensive coordinator), Oregon has been 19-12-3 (61.29%) at Autzen Stadium. Since taking over as head coach in 2009, Kelly’s Ducks have been 11-7-3 (61.11%). Although six of their last nine seasons at home have been profitable (i.e. winning at a rate greater than 52.38%), their 2011 campaign was their worst, finishing 2-4-2.

IS THE PUBLIC (MONEY) ONTO THEM?

Oddsmakers have definitely moved the line to reflect Oregon’s home prowess. From 2003 through the 2007 season, 29 games, the Ducks were home favorites by more than 22 points, just once (3.45%). Since then, 27 games, they were home favorites by more than 22 points, 12 times (44.44%). Six of those 12 games were played in 2011, when the Ducks were 2-3-1 against those large numbers.

#2 THE UCLA BRUINS

With 35 wins and 20 losses, these ‘Gutty Little Bruins’ have won at a rate of 63.64% against-the-spread in Pasadena since 2003. If you bet $110 on each home game (to win $100), you would be up $1,300.

BUT WHAT HAVE THEY WON FOR ME LATELY?

Truly, UCLA’s ATS home field glory years were under Karl Dorrell (from 2003-2007). At home, with Dorrell as head coach, UCLA went 22-8 (73.33%) against-the-spread. Under Rick Neuheisel’s tenure from 2008-2011, the Bruins were an unimpressive (and unprofitable) 13-12 (52%) ATS in Pasadena. Their 2011 home campaign went 3-3 ATS. In fact, UCLA has not had a winning ATS home field record since 2008- Neuheisel’s first year.

FIRST TIME’S A CHARM?

Speaking of first years, Jim L. Mora is beginning his stint as head man in Westwood (and on game days, in Pasadena) this 2012 season. Each of UCLA’s last three head coaches (dating back to 1996 with Bob Toledo) had winning home field ATS debut seasons. This is not necessarily a coincidence. Expectations, especially widely-believed public ones, tend to drive betting lines. Need quantitative proof? Since 2003, when public expectations were lowest for UCLA home games- games where less than 30% of the public money was on the Bruins- UCLA was 11-2 (84.62%) ATS! Current expectations for UCLA and Coach Mora appear to be relatively pedestrian. Did we mention that UCLA’s first home game is against Nebraska (who is in everybody’s top-25)?

#1 THE NEVADA WOLF PACK

Perfect for the state that has allowed sports betting since 1941: Reno is not only the ‘Biggest Little City in the World,’ but it is also home to the best home field bet in the college football world for the past nine seasons. With 32 wins and 18 losses, this ravenous Wolf Pack won at a rate of 64% against-the-spread since 2003. If you bet $110 on each home game (to win $100), you would be up $1,220.

BUT WHAT HAVE THEY WON FOR ME LATELY?

Seven out of the last nine seasons have been profitable at home for Nevada. In 2011, Nevada went 3-2-1 ATS at home. Although not singularly impressive, since the return of legendary head coach Chris Ault in 2004, Ault’s Wolf Pack only had one losing home ATS season (2008) in his last eight seasons, where he has gone an amazing 30-15 (66.67%).

THE GLORIOUS YIN-YANG OF COLLEGE FOOTBALL BETTING

As odd as it may strike your intuition, Nevada and Chris Ault’s superior home field ATS advantage may be, in part, due to their awful ATS record when they are away from Reno. The flip side of Coach Ault having just one losing home season is that he has only one winning away season (2006). When Ault’s Nevada squad played away from home, they were an abysmal 20-32 (38.46%) ATS, including a 2-4 (33.33%) ATS 2011 season.

So there they are, two teams from the Pac-12 and one from the Mountain West Conference. Take that East Coast bias.

Some important notes about CollegeFootballWinning.com’s methodology in this study:

1) We used the CLOSING lines from the international sportsbook, Pinnacle Sports, for our ATS data.

2) Games that resulted in an ATS push (a tie) were not counted in winning percentages.

3) Since the data comes from Pinnacle, by and large, the resulting ATS records are for FBS versus FBS team matchups. However, when Pinnacle had a betting line and further data on FBS versus non-FBS team matchups, those results were included.

4) The data analyzed is from the start of the 2003 season through the end of the 2011 season (nine complete college football seasons, including all Bowl games).

5) “Home” ATS records refer to teams playing in their home stadium or in a stadium that is considered “Home” for a particular game. “Home” ATS records never include Bowl games.

6) “Away” ATS records refer to teams playing away from their home stadium. This includes neutral site games (that are truly, neutrally located). “Away” ATS records never include Bowl games.

7) “Bowl” ATS records do not distinguish between designated ‘home’ and ‘away’ teams. This is one of the reasons why Bowl games are in a disparate category.

In our next article, we will reveal the most home fieldDIS–advantaged teams in college football, against-the-spread. So, stay tuned to CollegeFootballWinning.com!