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Ranking Real Home Field Advantage in College Football: The BOTTOM-3

So much is made out of the home field advantage in college football. For sports bettors, any advantage should be realized, analyzed, and applied. Since college football bettors care about the outcome of their wagers, the only home field advantage worth discussing is the one against-the-spread (ATS). ATS home field advantage could reveal some general conclusions about public perception and, by extension, oddsmakers’ tendencies when establishing betting lines for college football matchups. Having looked at the three best home field teams in a previous article [CLICK HERE], which home fields have turned cash into fertilizer?

THE BOTTOM-3, HOME FIELD, AGAINST-THE-SPREAD COLLEGE FOOTBALL TEAMS, SINCE 2003 (by percentage):

The Third Worst: THE FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS

Shocked? Fresno State’s Bulldog Stadium has been a scary place for visiting teams, but not for bets on those visiting teams. While the Bulldogs won more than 67% of their home games straight-up (SU) since 2003, their 15 wins and 29 losses against-the-spread equals an atrocious 34.1% ATS winning rate. If you bet $110 on each home game (to win $100), you would have lost $1,690. BEWARE OF (Bull)DOG!

BUT HAVE THEY LOST LATELY?

Yes. The 2011 season was 1-5 for Fresno State at home, ATS. In fact, from 2006-2011, the home ATS record for the Bulldogs was 7-24 (22.58%). Even so, the public was not convinced. Since 2005, seven games had an overwhelming majority (70% or greater) of the public money bet on the Bulldogs at home. They did not win a single one of those games (ATS).

SHOULD I BET AGAINST THEM NOW?

Not so fast. Former head coach Pat Hill (who had been there since 1997) was let go at the end of 2011. In 15 years as their leader, Pat Hill only coached 3 losing seasons. Over that same 15-year span, he only had 4 winning ATS home seasons. Tim DeRuyter is now in charge, but Coach Hill did not leave the cupboard bare. For a first year coach at a school that has seen far better football days, the expectations might be low enough with the talent high enough to have a decent ATS year.

The Second Worst: THE TULANE GREEN WAVE

One cannot even feign surprise here. The Green Wave have been at such a low tide that they have not had a winning football season (SU) since 2002. In home games since 2003, Tulane’s 17 wins and 34 losses ATS, amount to a winning percentage that is 33.33%. If you bet $110 on each home game (to win $100), you would have lost $2,040. WIPEOUT!

BUT HAVE THEY LOST LATELY?

Yes. The 2011 season was 1-5 for Tulane. Even the public bettors knew. In six home games in 2011, only once did Tulane attract more than 50% of the public money. (Around 67% of the money was on the Green Wave when Memphis came to town, yet Tulane still lost the game, both SU and ATS.)

SHOULD I BET AGAINST THEM NOW?

Well, they have a new head coach, Curtis Johnson, who either recruited or coached Marshall Faulk, Santana Moss, and Reggie Wayne. A New Orleans native (who just left his post as the wide receivers coach for the New Orleans Saints), he is a good recruiter and an offense-minded guy. The trouble is, Tulane needs help (almost everywhere, but especially) on defense. In 2011, they gave up 37.5 points per game. With linebacker extraordinaire Trent Mackey (who was #3 in the NATION in solo tackles in 2011) indefinitely suspended from the team for 2012, they might just be up to their perennial losing ways- at least for now.

THE Worst: THE ARMY BLACK KNIGHTS

Respect the way these leaders defend our country, but bet against the way these football players defend their home stadium. Since 2003, Army has 15 wins and 32 losses (31.91%) at home, ATS. If you bet $110 on each home game (to win $100), you would have lost $2,020. WE SURRENDER (our cash)!

BUT HAVE THEY LOST LATELY?

No! The team with the worst military home field advantage since Germany circa 1945, actually went 4-1 ATS at home in 2011. Interestingly enough, the public is on to them. In the last 11 home games, the betting side that had the majority of the money wagered (either on Army or against Army) was correct 9 times (81.82%). So follow the money…

SHOULD I BET AGAINST THEM NOW?

Coach Rich Ellerson is entering his fourth year as the Black Knights’ football general. He has 12 of his top 13 runners back in an option attack offense, and they have one of the easiest schedules in college football. Need we mention that Army has not earned much public betting respect, so expectations should still be good and low? If people are expecting this Army to retreat in 2012, they just might pay for their tactical error.

From 2003-2011, Fresno State, Tulane, and Army have been the three worst home teams against-the-spread in all of college football. Would you believe it if you found out that Miami (of Florida) and Notre Dame were tied for fourth worst? Well, it is true. So what have we learned? If everyone thinks you have a huge home field advantage (Fresno State, Miami, Notre Dame), they just might be wrong (and broke). If your entire raison d’être is to study how best to defend our homeland (Army), you might not be so good at applying those lessons to football. Finally, if you are Tulane, you might want to become a New Orleans Saints fan.

Some important notes about CollegeFootballWinning.com’s methodology in this study:

1) We used the CLOSING lines from the international sportsbook, Pinnacle Sports, for our ATS data.

2) Games that resulted in an ATS push (a tie) were not counted in winning percentages.

3) Since the data comes from Pinnacle, by and large, the resulting ATS records are for FBS versus FBS team matchups. However, when Pinnacle had a betting line and further data on FBS versus non-FBS team matchups, those results were included.

4) The data analyzed is from the start of the 2003 season through the end of the 2011 season (nine complete college football seasons, including all Bowl games).

5) “Home” ATS records refer to teams playing in their home stadium or in a stadium that is considered “Home” for a particular game. “Home” ATS records never include Bowl games.

6) “Away” ATS records refer to teams playing away from their home stadium. This includes neutral site games (that are truly, neutrally located). “Away” ATS records never include Bowl games.

7) “Bowl” ATS records do not distinguish between designated ‘home’ and ‘away’ teams. This is one of the reasons why Bowl games are in a disparate category.

Thank you for reading, confess that you learned something, and please stay tuned to CollegeFootballWinning.com.